Despite strong earnings, strategic acquisitions, and a bullish analyst upgrade, Mondi Group’s South African share price remains trapped in a multi-year rut, leaving investors to weigh solid fundamentals against a stubborn technical resistance.
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA – Mondi Group (JSE: MNPJ), a global heavyweight in sustainable packaging and paper with a market value of R126.32 billion ($7.38 billion), is presenting investors with a classic dilemma. The company’s underlying business is firing on all cylinders, reporting a sharp rise in profits and executing a disciplined growth strategy. However, its share price on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has hit a formidable wall, struggling to break out of a consolidation pattern that has persisted for years.
While the company’s operational performance tells a story of resilience and growth, its stock chart paints a picture of frustration, leaving investors to question what it will take to unlock its value.
The Technical Stalemate: A Stock Stuck in a Range
A look at Mondi’s share price charts reveals a clear battle between buyers and sellers. On a long-term monthly basis, the stock has been trading sideways since 2018, caught between a powerful support zone around the 25,000 ZAC (South African cents) level and a ceiling near 43,000 ZAC.
More recently, the R300 (30,000 ZAC) level has emerged as a critical point of resistance. After a sharp 30% decline in mid-2024, the stock rebounded in early 2025 but has been repeatedly rejected at this R300 mark, turning what was once support into a new technical barrier. For a sustainable rally to begin, buyers will need to decisively push through this level and overcome key moving averages.
Business Performance Tells a Different Story
Away from the stock charts, Mondi’s fundamentals are robust. The company delivered a strong start to 2025, with key highlights from its Q1 report including:
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Surging Profits: Underlying EBITDA jumped to €290 million, a significant increase from €214 million in Q1 2024, driven primarily by higher sales volumes.
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Confident Outlook: Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance, expecting €50–€100 million in EBITDA contributions from major strategic projects, signaling confidence in its expansion plans.
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Strategic Growth: The company is advancing key projects, including new paper machines in the Czech Republic and Italy, and finalized the acquisition of Schumacher Packaging’s Western European assets, adding 2,200 employees and expanding its market footprint.
This performance comes despite headwinds like muted demand in the uncoated fine paper segment and lower average selling prices, showcasing the company’s effective cost controls and the strength of its diversified business model.
Wall Street and Big Money Take Notice
The disconnect between Mondi’s performance and its share price has not gone unnoticed by institutional players.
In a significant vote of confidence, JPMorgan upgraded Mondi shares to “Overweight” in May, citing limited downside risk in containerboard markets and “meaningful upside potential” in the kraft paper segment. The bank noted an improved mood among investors following the solid Q1 results.
Furthermore, a notable ownership update in September 2024 revealed that Allan Gray Proprietary Limited, a major South African investment firm, had acquired significant voting rights in Mondi plc. Such moves by large, long-term focused institutions often signal a belief that the company is fundamentally undervalued.
Outlook: A Coiled Spring?
For investors, Mondi presents a compelling but complex picture. The company is a leader in the growing sustainable packaging sector, is executing its strategy effectively, and is earning strong profits. Yet, its stock remains range-bound.
The key question is whether this is a value trap or a coiled spring. With strong institutional and analyst backing, the fundamental case is clear. The catalyst for a breakout, however, may depend on broader market sentiment and the company’s ability to convince investors that its impressive operational momentum can finally translate into a sustained share price rally.
